USDA’s Annual Ag Outlook Forum delivered the first unofficial look at the 2024/25 marketing year for grains and oilseeds. The next update will come in the May World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates.
Between now and then, USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report on March 28 will update 2024 U.S. acres. We will gain a much better understanding of South American production, which will allow fine-tuning of demand estimates. U.S. weather trends and the start of planting in the Midwest will also help determine if trend-line yield projections are realistic.
But until that May report, here are the dominant themes impacting the corn and soybean markets.
Corn plantings are projected at 91 million with soybean plantings at 87.5 million acres. That’s 178.5 million acres combined, compared to last year’s 178.2 million. Corn acres are down 3.6 million with soybean acres up 3.9 million from 2023. Corn got a head start last fall, and 92 million is likely a foundation for 2024 acres, especially if this planting season starts early.
The national average corn yield is projected at 181 bu. per acre. That’s an adjusted trend-line yield and is down from the 181.5 bu. projected at the 2023 Ag Outlook Forum. The projection includes the assumption of normal weather conditions for spring planting and summer crop development. Yield reached a record 177.3 bu. per acre in 2023 with some difficult conditions in the western 50% of the Corn Belt. “Normal weather” might be all it takes to launch yields well past trend line.
The national average soybean yield is projected at 52 bu. per acre.
The projected total supplies from 2024/25 are 17.24 billion bushels of corn and 4.84 billion bushels of soybeans. The market’s job is to find a way to use as many of those bushels as possible. Unfortunately, that will be a weight on prices.
Corn ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 2.53 billion bushels, with soybeans at 435 million bushels. Corn stocks-to-use would be 17.2% and soybeans 9.9%. Neither stocks-to-use ratio is price friendly. USDA projected the 2024 national average corn price of $4.40 with soybeans at $11.20.
Longer-Term Forecast
2024/25 carryovers will become 2025/26 beginning stocks and old-crop bushels carried into a new-crop marketing year are a supply-side cushion. Corn beginning stocks might represent as much as 15% of the expected 2025 corn crop, while soybean beginning stocks could be as much as 10% of the expected soybean crop. It seems beginning stocks are snowballing, making the market less sensitive to crop threats.
A short-crop in the U.S. is the most likely “quick fix” for the situation, but if Brazil’s crop problems do turn into more demand for U.S. corn and soybeans by early summer, risks to 2024 crops will be back on traders’ must-watch list.
FAQs
Corn ending stocks for 2024/25 are projected at 2.53 billion bushels, with soybeans at 435 million bushels. Corn stocks-to-use would be 17.2% and soybeans 9.9%. Neither stocks-to-use ratio is price friendly. USDA projected the 2024 national average corn price of $4.40 with soybeans at $11.20.
What is the crop outlook for 2024? ›
The corn outlook for 2024-25 indicates lower production but greater domestic use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. With a projected corn crop of 15.04 billion bushels and a decrease in planted area, total corn supplies are forecasted at a record level.
What is the USDA planting intentions report for 2024? ›
WASHINGTON, March 28, 2024 – Producers surveyed across the United States intend to plant 90.0 million acres of corn in 2024, down 5% from last year, according to the Prospective Plantings report released today by USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).
What is the price of grain in 2024? ›
Wheat Prices Today in India
| Date | Average Price/Quintal | Lowest Market Price/Quintal |
|---|
| 22-Apr-2024 | ₹2304.44 | ₹2180.00 |
| 18-Apr-2024 | ₹2279.43 | ₹2050.00 |
| 17-Apr-2024 | ₹2279.82 | ₹2100.00 |
| 16-Apr-2024 | ₹2364.77 | ₹75.00 |
6 more rowsMy Grain Bids
| Commodity | Last | Open |
|---|
| Corn | 440-2 | 440-0 |
| Soybeans | 1142-2 | 1145-0 |
| Wheat | 585s-0 | 587-0 |
| Cotton | 0.7843s | 0.7843 |
2 more rowsGrain prices have dropped dramatically in the last year. Current prices for 2024 new crop delivery are around $4.15/bu for corn, $11.00/bu for soybeans (2/23/23). This is a decrease of around $1.00/bu for corn and $1.75/bu for soybeans compared to what these prices were expected one year ago (see Figure 1).
What is the projected corn price for 2024? ›
As we came out of COVID/Russia-Ukraine-induced highs, prices have fallen rapidly. The season average price for corn in 2022/23 was $6.54/bu and is projected to decrease to $4.80 in 2023/24 and $4.40 in 2024/25.
What is the USDA projection for corn? ›
Corn planted area is projected to decline about 4 percent relative to last year. The U.S. corn outlook for 2024/25 is for lower production, greater domestic use, increased exports, and higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 15.040 billion bushels, down about 2 percent from the prior year's record.
What is the grain outlook for the USDA? ›
COARSE GRAINS: This month's 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast 2.7 million tons lower to 1,507.4 million.
What are the four priorities of the USDA? ›
USDA Priorities
Advancing Racial Justice, Equity, Opportunity and Rural Prosperity.
However, despite this momentary rally, the broader outlook remains pessimistic, with wheat prices projected to decrease by 14% in 2024 due to an oversupply and record harvests. The competitive landscape of wheat pricing has also witnessed shifts, with Australia emerging as a formidable player in the market.
What time of year are grain prices the highest? ›
Grain price seasonality in the U.S. generally results in low grain prices during the fall harvest period due to abundant supply. The uncertainty of early summer tends to allow plenty of price fluctuation and volatility, which usually causes grain prices to reach their annual high levels.
How much will wheat prices go up? ›
The 2023/24 wheat marketing year U.S. wheat stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 33.7% compared to a 10-year average of 43%. 2024 Oklahoma and Texas wheat prices are expected to be around $6.20. Well above-average 2024 U.S. and world wheat production could result in a price of $5.33.
How high will soybean prices go? ›
Last year, the average November soybean futures contract averaged $13.30 per bushel, with a price range of $2.78. Again, that range is much less volatile than the $4.88 we saw in 2021. Going forward in to 2024, Maples projects a trading range of $2 with corn prices sitting somewhere between $4 to $6 per bushel.
What is the USDA forecast for soybean prices? ›
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.55 per bushel, down 10 cents.
What is the current price for a bushel of soybeans? ›
US Soybean Farm Price Received is at a current level of 11.90, down from 12.80 last month and down from 15.10 one year ago. This is a change of -7.03% from last month and -21.19% from one year ago.
What are the crop planning prices for 2024? ›
2024 breakeven estimates
Using the 2024 Purdue crop budgets, the estimated breakeven corn price to cover all costs is $5.25 per bushel for average-productivity soil and $4.90 for high-productivity soil. Breakeven prices in 2024 are expected to be about 10% lower than those for 2023.
Will fertilizer prices go down in 2024? ›
While fertilizer costs are expected to continue to fall in 2024, uncertainty remains due to geopolitical conflicts, export restrictions with China and natural gas prices.
What is the projection for wheat in 2024? ›
Wheat outlook
FAPRI projections for total wheat area sit at 47.6 million acres for 2024/25, a decline of 2 million acres. To achieve this number, combined spring wheat acres would need to increase by 299,000 acres year-on-year.
What is the outlook for the wheat market in 2024? ›
However, despite this momentary rally, the broader outlook remains pessimistic, with wheat prices projected to decrease by 14% in 2024 due to an oversupply and record harvests. The competitive landscape of wheat pricing has also witnessed shifts, with Australia emerging as a formidable player in the market.
