USDA ERS - Market Outlook (2024)

FAQs

What is the USDA forecast for 2024? ›

Summary Findings. Overall, farm cash receipts are forecast to decrease by $21.2 billion (4.2 percent) from 2023 to $485.5 billion in 2024 in nominal dollars. Total crop receipts are forecast to decrease by $16.7 billion (6.3 percent) from 2023 levels to $245.7 billion following lower receipts for corn and soybeans.

U.S. net farm income forecast to decrease in 2023 and 2024

The inflation-adjusted net farm income estimate was a record-setting $196.4 billion in 2022. In 2023, net farm income is forecast to have decreased by 18.9 percent relative to 2022 and is expected to further decrease by 27.1 percent in 2024.

Food prices are expected to continue to decelerate in 2024 compared to recent years. In 2024, all food prices are predicted to increase 2.2 percent, with a prediction interval of 0.7 to 3.8 percent.

Feeder steer prices for 750–800 pound calves in 2024 are forecast to average $248.5 per cwt, compared to $218.69 in 2023.

USDA's most recent cost estimate for 2024 is $870 an acre, a 28% increase from the years when ending supplies were similar to today and December corn prices traded roughly between $3.15 and $4.50 a bushel.

Farm income declined from exceptional levels in 2023 and early forecasts point to more softening in 2024. Still, many ag producers remain in a strong financial position due to recent years' incomes. The value of farmland has remained strong and continued to rise in 2023 despite higher interest rates.

These payments help mitigate fluctuations in either revenue or prices for certain crops. Payments for crops that may trigger for the 2023 crop year will be issued in the fall of 2024.

Net cash farm income for calendar year 2024 is forecast at $121.7 billion (down $38.7 billion or 24.1 percent relative to 2023, in nominal dollars). Net farm income is forecast at $116.1 billion (down $39.8 billion or 25.5 percent).

On Nov. 16, 2023, President Biden signed into law H.R. 6363, the Further Continuing Appropriations and Other Extensions Act, 2024, which extended the Agriculture Improvement Act of 2018, more commonly known as the 2018 Farm Bill.

In 2024, Americans are loving savory morning meals more than ever. Think dishes like tacos with eggs and sausage instead of the usual sweet pancake stacks. Also, there's a big move toward foods that come from plants. More people are choosing almond milk yogurts and burgers made from veggies for their first meal.

What is a new food you would like to try in 2024? ›

What foods are trending 2024? 2024 is a year of alternatives, including almond milk, vegetarian fried chicken, potato milk, fusion flavors and plant-based meat to name a few. There's also a focus on global dishes, even more bold flavors, and urban produce.

Accordingly, prices are forecast to rise from the average of $73.36/cwt observed in the 1^st quarter of 2024 to $88.87/cwt and $93.72/cwt in the 2^nd and 3^rd quarters, respectively, before falling to $78.66/cwt for the final quarter of 2024 and then to $77.55/cwt for the 1^st quarter of 2025.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports beef inventory hit its lowest level since 1948 after a drought impacted large beef producing states, such as Texas, Oklahoma and Missouri, which reduced the grazing abilities of animals on their pastures and restricted the number of cattle per herd.

(NEXSTAR) — After the last few years, it may not be surprising to hear about rising costs at the grocery store (remember when egg prices skyrocketed during the pandemic?). Now, experts are warning another grocery item could reach record prices: beef.

GDP growth in the United States is projected to be 2.6% in 2024, before slowing to 1.8% in 2025 as the economy adapts to high borrowing costs and moderating domestic demand.

Net farm income, a broad measure of profits, is forecast at $116.1 billion in calendar year 2024, a decrease of $39.8 billion (25.5 percent) relative to 2023 in nominal (not adjusted for inflation) dollars.

The Congressional Budget Office's February 2024 baseline for USDA Mandatory Farm Programs and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program revealed projected outlays for farm bill-related programs at $1.46 trillion over the 10-year window from fiscal years 2025 to 2034 – down 3.5% from the previous 10-year baseline of ...

With trend yields and reduced acres, 2024 corn production is projected below 15 billion bushels. Prices are easing from 2022/23 peaks but remain above pre-pandemic levels.