Ben Potter, Senior editor
June 3, 2024
6 Min Read
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Grain prices were once again caught in the crosshairs of a broad selloff that affected stocks, energy futures and most grain and livestock commodities. Corn prices faded 0.75% to 1% lower, while soybeans suffered double-digit declines. Wheat losses were variable but mostly ranged between 0.75% and 1.25%.
Most of the Corn Belt will see at least some measurable moisture between Tuesday and Friday, with some fields only gathering trace amounts while others could see another 1” or more later this week, per the latest 72-hour cumulative precipitation map from NOAA. Later this month, NOAA’s new 8-to-14-day outlook predicts seasonally wet conditions for the Central and Southern Plains between June 10 and June 16, with colder-than-normal temperatures spreading across the Midwest.
On Wall St., the Dow spilled 262 points lower in afternoon trading to 38,423 on general economic anxiety, although the index is not far removed from surpassing 40,000 for the first time last month. Energy futures faced sizable cuts, with crude oil sinking 3.75% lower this afternoon to $74 per barrel. Diesel and gasoline each eroded around 3.5% lower. The U.S. Dollar softened moderately.
On Friday, commodity funds were net sellers of corn (10,000), soybeans (-5,000), soyoil (-2,000) and CBOT wheat (-8,000) contracts and were roughly even when trading soymeal contracts.
Corn
Corn prices suffered a moderate setback as traders engaged in another round of technical selling partly spurred by seasonal planting progress. July futures dropped 3.25 cents to $4.43, with September futures down 4.75 cents to $4.4925.
Corn basis bids were steady to mixed after trending as much as 4 cents higher at an Illinois river terminal and as much as 10 cents lower at an Iowa processor on Monday.
Private exporters announced to USDA the sale of 4.3 million bushels of corn for delivery to Spain during the 2023/24 marketing year, which began September 1.
Corn export inspections improved to 54.1 million bushels last week, which was a weekly gain of almost 22%. That was also better than the entire set of analyst estimates, which ranged between 38.4 million and 47.2 million bushels. Mexico was the No. 1 destination, with 15.9 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2023/24 marketing year are still trending moderately above last year’s pace after reaching 1.486 billion bushels.
Ahead of this afternoon’s crop progress report from USDA, analysts expect the agency to show corn plantings reach 92% completion through June 2, up from 83% a week ago. USDA will also release its first quality ratings of the season in today’s report, and analysts expect the agency to show 70% of the crop in good-to-excellent condition through Sunday. Individual trade guesses varied a bit, ranging from 58% to 79%.
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Brazil’s AgRural estimates that Brazil’s 2023/24 second corn harvest has reached 4.7% completion through May 30, up from 2% in the prior week and ahead of last season’s pace of 1.4%. Brazil’s second corn crop typically accounts for around three-fourths of its total production.
South Korea purchased up to 2.6 million bushels of animal feed corn, likely sourced from the United States or South America, in a private deal that closed earlier today. The grain is for arrival around September 20.
Corn settlements on Friday were for 317,565 contracts.
Soybeans
Soybean prices eroded steadily throughout Monday’s session on a round of technical selling that led to cuts of almost 1.75%. July futures tumbled 20.5 cents to $11.8450, with August futures down 20.75 cents to $11.8275.
The rest of the soy complex was also in the red today. July soymeal futures fell 1.25%, while July soyoil futures incurred losses of more than 3%.
Soybean basis bids were steady to firm after tracking 2 to 5 cents higher across half a dozen Midwestern locations on Monday.
Soybean export inspections made moderate week-over-week improvements after moving to 12.8 million bushels. That was also on the very high end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 6.4 million and 12.9 million bushels. Mexico was the top destination, with 2.6 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2023/24 marketing year are still well below last year’s pace, meantime, with 1.481 billion bushels.
Ahead of Monday afternoon’s crop progress report from USDA, analysts expect to see soybean plantings move from 68% a week ago up to 80% through Sunday. Individual trade guesses ranged between 75% and 83%.
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Soybean settlements on Friday were for 197,890 contracts.
Wheat
Wheat prices incurred moderate cuts after following a broad set of other commodities lower on Monday. July Chicago SRW futures dropped 5.5 cents to $6.73, July Kansas City HRW futures lost 8.75 cents to $7.00, and July MGEX spring wheat futures fell 6.5 cnets to $7.3325.
Wheat export inspections found modest weekly improvements after reaching 15.3 million bushels. That was also toward the higher end of analyst estimates, which ranged between 9.2 million and 16.5 million bushels. The Philippines topped all destinations, with 3.6 million bushels. Cumulative totals for the 2023/24 marketing year are still slightly below last year’s pace, with 687.4 million bushels.
Prior to this afternoon’s crop progress report from USDA, analysts think the agency will show winter wheat crop ratings hold steady from a week ago, with 48% in good-to-excellent condition through June 2. Analysts also expect to see 95% of this season’s spring wheat crop now planted, with 69% rated in good-to-excellent condition.
Australia’s government raised its estimates for the country’s 2024/25 wheat production to 1.069 billion bushels. That would be 10% better than the prior ten-year average, if realized. Australia’s barley production is also expected to rise 7% higher year-over-year to 528.2 million bushels. The government attributes the rises to a “close to ideal” start to the season thanks to recent rains in its eastern production regions.
Russia’s Sovecon consultancy estimates that the country’s wheat exports in May reached 161.7 million bushels, which was 4.3% below April’s volume. Russia is the world’s No. 1 wheat exporter. Meantime, Russia’s agriculture minister said the country may declare a nationwide emergency following recent widespread frosts that have affected some 3.7 million acres. The move would pave the way for initiating insurance claims.
South Korea purchased 2.2 million bushels of animal feed wheat from optional origins in a private deal that closed on Friday. The grain is for shipment starting in mid-June, depending on where it is sourced.
Algeria issued an international tender to purchase at least 1.8 million bushels of soft milling wheat from optional origins that closes on Tuesday. Algeria often purchases more than the nominal amount listed. The grain is for shipment in July and August.
CBOT wheat settlements on Friday were for 99,931 contracts.
