USDA ERS - Market Outlook (2024)

FAQs

What is the outlook for the poultry market in 2024? ›

In its “Global poultry quarterly Q1 2024: Outlook 2024,” Rabobank forecasted poultry to be the fastest-growing animal protein in the global market. Lower feed costs, which should drive a decline in prices, are expected to generate 1.5% to 2% growth, according to the report.

U.S. Feed Grain Supplies Are Expected To Increase in 2024/25

Larger supplies are expected to prompt greater feed grain use, and ending stocks are projected higher for 2024/25, at 56.4 million metric tons, up 2.3 million metric tons from the already large ending stocks estimated at the end of 2023/24.

U.S. Agricultural Exports in Fiscal Year 2024 Forecast at $170.5 Billion; Imports at $201.0 Billion.

Report Summary

The 2024 price forecasts for Cheddar cheese and butter are also raised, while the forecasts for nonfat dry milk and dry whey prices are lowered. Overall, the 2024 forecast for the all-milk price is raised by $0.30 to $21.20 per hundredweight (cwt).

Chicken prices in 2024 are expected to be similar to 2023 in the baseline expectation. However, there is considerable uncertainty to production. If production growth exceeds expectations, chicken prices may drop year-over-year.

The outlook for global poultry markets in 2024 remains moderately positive, with demand expected to gradually recover due to better affordability driven by lower costs, lower inflation rates, and rising incomes.

1. Net cash farm income for calendar year 2024 is forecast at $121.7 billion (down $38.7 billion or 24.1 percent relative to 2023, in nominal dollars). Net farm income is forecast at $116.1 billion (down $39.8 billion or 25.5 percent).

After adjusting for inflation, net farm income is forecast to decrease $43.1 billion (27.1 percent) in 2024 relative to 2023.

As of May 1, the U.S. yield is expected to average 50.7 bushels per acre, up 0.1 bushel from last year's average of 50.6 bushels per acre. Hard Red Winter production is forecast at 705 million bushels, up 17% from a year ago. Soft Red Winter, at 344 million bushels, is expected to decrease 23% from 2023.

Is the USDA understaffed? ›

Remark: Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack telling the Senate Agriculture Committee that USDA has been hiring more people to relieve a staff shortage, but is having trouble retaining those workers.

Agriculture prices are expected to decline over the forecast period, while metal prices are set to fall in 2024 but see a 6 percent uptick in 2025. The forecasts assume that the conflict in the Middle East will have a limited impact on commodity prices, though geopolitical risks remain high.

Dairy: The forecasts for dairy herd size, milk per cow, and total milk production in 2024 have been lowered relative to the last month's forecast to 9.335 million head, 24,345 pounds, and 227.3 billion pounds, respectively.

After earning record-high milk prices in 2022, dairy farmers have seen their earnings plummet in recent months, with more operations struggling to stay in business and some closing their doors for good. Their plight has prompted comparisons to the 2009 economic crisis that forced droves of dairies into bankruptcy.

Kansas has consistently ranked as one of the fastest growing dairy states. Kansas has established itself as a prime location in the U.S. for dairies with its abundant land, feed supply, ideal climate, proactive water policies, and positive business environment.

The poultry meat sector in India has been growing at an annual average growth rate of 8%, with egg production increasing by 7.45 % between 2014-15 to 2021-22 (Basic Animal Husbandry statistics 2022, Ministry of Fisheries Animal Husbandry and Dairying Govt of India).

Global chicken meat production for 2024 is virtually unchanged from the October forecast at 103.3 million tons, according to the most recent USDA World Markets and Trade report for livestock and poultry.

The India poultry market has experienced significant growth in recent years, with its size reaching a value of USD 30.46 billion in 2023. This growth can be attributed to various factors such as increasing protein consumption, rising disposable incomes, and the growing popularity of poultry products among consumers.

Meat inflation has been particularly stubborn. Retail chicken breast prices, which averaged less than $3 a pound in March 2020, soared to $4.75 a pound in September 2022. Prices have since inched back to earth but are still elevated, US Department of Agriculture data show.