USDA ERS - Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade (2024)

FAQs

What is the USDA AG trade outlook? ›

U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2024 are projected at $170.5 billion, unchanged from the February forecast. Higher exports of livestock and dairy, as well as increased ethanol sales largely offset reductions in grains and feeds, oilseeds, and horticultural products.

Trade in agricultural and fisheries commodities should expand over the coming decade at around 1.3 percent annually, slower than over the past decade (3.3 percent average), as growth in global import demand is expected to slow.

U.S. Agricultural Exports in Fiscal Year 2024 Forecast Unchanged at $170.5 Billion; Imports revised upwards to $202.5 Billion.

Headwinds persist in the U.S. farm economy. U.S. agricultural exports are slowing and a record-large trade deficit is projected for 2023. Ending inventories of major grains, oilseeds, poultry, and dairy products are projected to increase into 2024.

The 10 largest sources of cash receipts from the sale of U.S.-produced farm commodities in calendar year 2022 are (in descending order): corn, cattle/calves, soybeans, dairy products/milk, broilers, hogs, miscellaneous crops, chicken eggs, wheat, and hay.

U.S. net farm income forecast to decrease in 2023 and 2024

The inflation-adjusted net farm income estimate was a record-setting $196.4 billion in 2022. In 2023, net farm income is forecast to have decreased by 18.9 percent relative to 2022 and is expected to further decrease by 27.1 percent in 2024.

The United States of America-based Cargill Inc is the leading agricultural products company in the world (by revenue). The company reported revenues of $114,600 million for the fiscal year ended June 2021 (FY2021).

The leading U.S. agricultural exports are grains and feeds, soybeans, livestock products, tree nuts, fruits, vegetables, and other horticultural products. The leading U.S. imports are horticultural and tropical products. Canada, Mexico, the European Union, and East Asia are major U.S. trade partners.

Overall employment of agricultural workers is projected to decline 2 percent from 2022 to 2032. Despite declining employment, about 115,700 openings for agricultural workers are projected each year, on average, over the decade.

Classified as the world's second largest agricultural trader, the United States' total agricultural exports reached $196 billion in 2022.

Does the US have a trade surplus for all agricultural commodities? ›

For the third time in five years, the United States' trade in agriculture will run a deficit — when a country imports more than it exports. Through November 2023, the deficit amounted to nearly $20 billion.

By 2050, the whole idea of what constitutes a farm may take a very different form. While fields of crops are unlikely to disappear completely, there's growing interest in 'vertical farming', or controlled environment agriculture (CEA). More than just greenhouse growing, CEA is heavily dependent on technology.

Crop Receipts Projected to Fall in 2024

Crop cash receipts are forecast at $245.7 billion in 2024, a decrease of $16.7 billion (6.3 percent) from 2023 in nominal terms. Combined receipts for corn and soybeans are forecast to fall $17.2 billion, although fruit and nut receipts are expected to increase.

The joint OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides market projections for major agricultural commodities, biofuels and fish. Each yearly edition contains a special country or regional focus.

The U.S. agricultural trade deficit is growing.

The agricultural trade deficit is widening, posing challenges for American farmers due to global competition. The USDA projects a substantial agricultural trade deficit of $30.5 billion for fiscal year 2024, the largest trade imbalance in nominal terms since 1935.

USDA's long-term agricultural projections, also referred to as "baseline" projections, provide a scenario for the U.S. farm sector and global trade for the next 10 years. Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural trade, and aggregate indicators of each sector (such as farm income).

Employment of farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers is projected to decline 5 percent from 2022 to 2032. Despite declining employment, about 88,800 openings for farmers, ranchers, and other agricultural managers are projected each year, on average, over the decade.

The U.S. agricultural equipment market witnessed shipments of 831,826 units in 2022 and is expected to reach 1,023,957 units by 2028 growing at a CAGR of 3.52% during the forecast period.

In response to variable weather conditions across the globe, the 2024/25 coarse grains production forecast is lowered by 1.4 million to 1,511.2 million tons this month. This reduction is largely attributed to a lower barley output projection, partly offset by higher projected global corn output.