WTO | 2009 Press Releases - WTO sees 9% global trade decline in 2009 as recession strikes (2024)

The collapse in global demand brought on by the biggest economic downturn indecades will drive exports down by roughly 9% in volume terms¹in 2009, the biggest such contraction since the Second World War, WTO economistsforecast today. The contraction in developed countries will be particularlysevere with exports falling by 10% this year. In developing countries, which arefar more dependent on trade for growth, exports will shrink by some 2%-3% in2009, WTO economists say.

Economic contraction in most of the industrial world and steep export declinesalready posted in the early months of this year by most major economies —particularly those in Asia — makes for an unusually bleak 2009 trade assessment,said the WTO in its annual assessment of global trade.

Signs of the sharp deterioration in trade were evident in the latter part of2008 as demand sagged and production slowed. Although world trade grew by 2% involume terms for the whole of 2008 it tapered off in the last six months and waswell down on the 6% volume increase posted in 2007.

“For the last 30 years trade has been an ever increasing part of economicactivity, with trade growth often outpacing gains in output. Production for manyproducts is sourced around the world so there is a multiplier effect — as demandfalls sharply overall, trade will fall even further. The depleted pool of fundsavailable for trade finance has contributed to the significant decline in tradeflows, in particular in developing countries,” said Director-General Pascal Lamy.

“As a consequence, many thousands of trade related jobs are being lost.Governments must avoid making this bad situation worse by reverting toprotectionist measures which in reality protect no nation and threaten the lossof more jobs. We are carefully monitoring trade policy developments. The use ofprotectionist measures is on the rise. The risk is increasing of such measureschoking off trade as an engine of recovery. We must be vigilant because we knowthat restricting imports only leads your trade partner to follow suit and hityour exports. Trade can be a potent tool in lifting the world from theseeconomic doldrums. In London G20 leaders will have a unique opportunity to unitein moving from pledges to action and refrain from any further protectionistmeasure which will render global recovery efforts less effective,” Mr. Lamysaid.

Following the dramatic worsening of the financial crisis since September of lastyear, real global output growth slowed to 1.7%, compared to 3.5% in 2007, and islikely to fall by between 1% and 2% in 2009. This is the first decline in totalworld production since the 1930s, and its impact is magnified in trade. But WTOeconomists warn that the extraordinary turbulence of world markets in recentmonths and the continued uncertainty about the near-term trajectory of theglobal economy makes gauging the preliminary 2008 trade estimates and 2009projections unusually difficult.

A notable aspect of the current slowdown in world trade is its synchronizednature. Monthly exports and imports of major developed and developing economieshave been falling in unison since September 2008 (see Appendix Chart 1). Withthe growing share of developing countries’ trade in the global total, andincreased geographical diversification of these flows, it was assumed by somecommentators that a “decoupling” effect would have made developing countriesless vulnerable to economic turmoil in developed countries. This has not turnedout to be the case.

The WTO’s preliminary estimate of 2% growth in world trade volume for 2008 issubstantially lower than the forecast of 4.5% growth issued a year ago. However,last year’s outlook did identify significant downside risks related todevelopments in financial markets. A large part of the explanation for theover-estimation was the unexpected and very sharp drop in global production inthe fourth quarter of 2008.

In projecting trade growth for 2009, we assume a normal pattern for a recession,where trade falls, remains weak for a time and then resumes its upwardtrajectory and begins to return to its previous trend. If this basic scenarioholds, world merchandise trade is likely to fall some 9% in volume terms in 2009(ie, where price changes have been removed from the calculation), with developedeconomy exports falling by some 10% on average and developing country exportsshrinking by 2—3%.

Trade prospects for 2009 are heavily conditioned by the financial crisis thatbegan almost two years ago in the United States. The crisis intensifieddramatically following the collapse of the Wall Street investment bank LehmanBrothers in September of last year, and the government-led rescue of a number offinancial institutions in the United States and elsewhere. Turmoil in thefinancial sector and acute credit shortages spread inexorably to the realsector. Declining asset prices, faltering demand and falling productiontranslated into dramatically reduced and in some cases negative production andtrade growth in many countries. Trade has also been affected adversely by asharp shrinkage in credit to finance imports and exports.

Although the crisis began in the United States, financial institutions andeconomies throughout the developed and developing world have been severelyaffected. The deteriorating economic situation has taken a toll on both consumerand business confidence, and produced a negative feedback between the financialsector and the rest of the economy that dominates the outlook for 2009.

The months since last September have seen precipitous drops in global productionand trade, first in the developed economies, then in developing ones as well.Indexes calculated by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development(OECD) of composite leading indicators for the major industrial economies haveplunged to January 2009, indicating a high probability of a continuing declinein economic activity. Governments have tried a variety of policy measures toaddress the economic crisis, including bailouts for banks that are important forthe economic and financial system, and, more recently, mortgage assistance forstruggling home owners in the United States. All of this is in addition tomonetary and fiscal policies that have been deployed since the start of thecrisis. Conventional monetary policy may be reaching the limits of itseffectiveness, with interest rates in the United States and elsewhereapproaching zero. The timing of the recovery may now depend on how effective areproposed fiscal stimulus plans, which currently amount to more than 3% of worldproduction.

Since the recession began to take hold in the fourth quarter of 2008 there hasbeen little cause for optimism in the outlook for trade in 2009. The financialcrisis has disrupted the normal functioning of the banking system and deprivedfirms and individuals of much-needed credit. Falling stock markets and housingprices have also administered negative shocks to wealth in the United States andelsewhere, making households unwilling to purchase durable goods such asautomobiles while they attempt to rebuild their savings. Falling commodityprices, while a boon to consumers in importing countries, have also deprivedoil-producing countries of export revenues.

Not even China, with its dynamic economy, can insulate itself from globaldownturn when most of its main trading partners are in recession. China’sexports to its top six trading partners (treating the EU as a single partner)represented 70% of the country’s total exports in 2007. All of these tradingpartners are currently experiencing economic contraction or slowdown and arelikely to exhibit weak import demand for some time.

Available monthly data for most major traders show large drops in merchandiseexports and imports through the first two months of 2009. An exception to thispattern of decline in trade flows is discernible for certain economies in Asia,where positive monthly import growth numbers were recorded for China (17 percent) and also for Singapore, Chinese Taipei and Vietnam. While this is only asingle month of data, and should therefore be interpreted cautiously, it couldbe evidence of slowing decline and perhaps a “bottoming out” of negative tradegrowth trends. Future trade growth will, of course, depend on what happens todemand elsewhere in the world economy.

Moreover, the question must be asked as to how far trade could conceivably fallin the months ahead. As an example, consider China’s exports. In February thesewere down 26% compared with the same month in the previous year and 28% comparedwith January. If one were to extrapolate this downturn, China’s exports would beapproaching zero within ten months to a year. This is obviously a highlyimplausible scenario and emphasizes the reality that such steep declines asthose we have witnessed recently will not persist.

The above estimates of trade growth are supported by the results of the WTOSecretariat’s time series forecasting model which predicts for developedcountries (more precisely, members of the Organization for Economic Cooperationand Development or OECD), a slow-down in imports of goods and services of some8.5% (technically, “on a balance-of-payments basis”) (Chart 1).

The estimates are sensitive to the size of the initial drop and to the rate ofrecovery. If the drop in world trade is deeper than expected or if recoveryhappens more quickly, then the growth forecast will need updating.

Despite the large size of this expected drop in world trade there are stillsubstantial downside risks to the projection. Further adverse developments infinancial markets could prolong the current crisis, as could a surge inprotection. Recovery could be slower than expected if household consumption doesnot return to a more normal growth trend soon.

On the other hand, growth could resume more quickly than expected if reforms tothe financial sector are implemented quickly and credit markets begin tofunction more normally. Recessions usually contain the seeds of their ownrecovery, as reduced consumption implies increased savings, which is then lentout to willing borrowers for investment in future production. Unfortunately,this channel of recovery may be blocked until the world’s banking sector isrepaired.

Trade growth data show declines that are larger than in past slow-downs. Anumber of factors may explain this.

One is that the fall-off in demand is more widespread than in the past, as allregions of the world economy are slowing at once.

A second reason for the magnitude of recent declines relates to the increasingpresence of global supply chains in total trade. Trade contraction or expansionis no longer simply a question of changes in trade flows between a producingcountry and a consuming country — goods cross many frontiers during theproduction process and components in the final product are counted every timethey cross a frontier. The only way of avoiding this effect — whose aggregatemagnitude can only be guessed at on account of the absence of systematicinformation — would be to measure trade transactions on the basis of the valueadded at each stage of the production process. Since value-added, or the returnto factors of production, is the real measure of income in the economy, andtrade is a gross flow rather than a measure of income, it follows from thereasoning above that strong increases or decreases in trade flow numbers shouldnot be interpreted as an accurate guide to what is actually happening to incomesand employment.

A third element in current conditions that is likely to contribute to thecontraction of trade is a shortage of trade finance. This has clearly been aproblem and it is receiving particular attention from international institutionsand governments. The WTO has been playing a role as honest broker by bringingtogether the key players to work on ensuring the availability and affordabilityof trade finance.

A fourth factor that could contribute to trade contraction is protection. Anyrises in protection will threaten the prospects for recovery and prolong thedownturn. The risk of aggravated protectionism is rightly a source of concerngoing forward.²

World economic growth — measured by total production, or gross domestic product(GDP) — slowed abruptly in 2008 against the backdrop of the worst financialcrisis since the 1930s. Weaker demand in developed economies brought about byfalling asset prices and increased economic uncertainty helped pull world outputgrowth down to 1.7%, from 3.5% a year earlier. Growth in 2008 was the slowestsince 2001 and well below the 10 year average rate of 2.9%.

Developed economies only managed a meagre 0.8% growth during last year, comparedto 2.5% in 2007, and an average rate of 2.2% between 2000 and 2008. Developingeconomies, on the other hand, expanded their output in 2008 by 5.6%, down from7.5% in 2007, but still equal to their average rate for the 2000—08 period.

Oil exporting countries experienced rapid growth of 5.5% on average in 2008,with exports from the Middle East growing at an even faster rate of 6.3%.

Least-developed countries (LDCs) grew faster than any other group of countries,at 6.6%, and above their 2000—08 average rate of 6.3%.

Europe and North America each grew only about 1% in 2008, while the oilexporting regions of South and Central America, the Commonwealth of IndependentStates, Africa and the Middle East all experienced GDP growth in excess of 5%.

Asia’s economic growth (GDP) in 2008 was only 2%, owing in large measure to thenegative growth (—0.7%) recorded by Japan. By contrast, developing Asia(excluding Japan, Australia and New Zealand) grew 5.7%, led by China, whichregistered the fastest growth of any major economy, at 9.0%.

The overall picture was one of continuing growth in the first half of the year,with oil exporting countries in particular benefiting from record high commodityprices. This was followed by faltering growth and the beginnings of a severedownturn in the second half, starting in the United States and other developedcountries, and then spreading to developing countries.

The value of the US dollar against a broad group of currencies — that is, itsreal effective exchange rate — rose during 2008 as the United States currencystrengthened against those of its trading partners. The rise of the dollarfollowed a weakening against other currencies since 2002. The 2008 appreciationwas most pronounced in the second half of the year as the financial crisisintensified. A strengthened dollar appears in large measure to be the result ofa flight to cash in a perceived “safe haven” currency. This may also explain thestrengthened yen (see below).

In the first half of 2008 the euro rose 7% against the dollar and then fell 14%from July to December. The euro had previously gained 30% against the dollarbetween January 2006 and its peak in July 2008. The British pound, the Canadiandollar and the Korean won all displayed similar trends, falling sharply againstthe dollar in the second half of 2008, after a long period of appreciation.

The Japanese yen and Chinese yuan behaved differently in response to thefinancial crisis. Both had appreciated against the dollar in recent years. Asthe financial crisis took hold, the yen rose sharply against the dollar whilethe yuan has remained more or less constant.

Prices for primary commodities were highly volatile in 2008, which is one of themain reasons why trade performance in the second half of the year was sodifferent from the first half. After steadily rising throughout 2007, energyprices spiked to record highs at over $140 a barrel by mid-year, only to crashafterwards to the lowest level since early 2005 amid weakening demand in oilimporting countries. Between January 2007 and July 2008 fuel prices rose 144%,more than doubling. But from July until the end of 2008 they fell 63% (Chart 2).

Merchandise trade growth in real terms (i.e. adjusted to discount changes inprices) slowed significantly in 2008 to 2%, compared to 6% in 2007. But tradestill managed to grow faster than global output, as is usually the case whenproduction growth is positive. Conversely, when output growth is declining tradegrowth tends to fall even faster, as we are now witnessing.

In dollar terms (which includes price changes and exchange rate fluctuations),world merchandise exports increased by 15% in 2008, to $15.8 trillion, whileexports of commercial services rose 11% to $3.7 trillion.

The share of developing economies in world merchandise trade set new records in2008, with exports rising to 38% of the world total and imports increasing to34%.

Germany’s merchandise exports in 2008, at $1.47 trillion, were slightly largerthan China’s $1.43 trillion. This meant that Germany retained its position asthe world’s leading merchandise exporter.

Despite its strong overall trade performance, China’s exports in some productcategories faltered towards the end of the year. Exports of office and telecomequipment to the rest of the world, worth some $381.5 billion in 2008, fell 7%in the fourth quarter compared to the same period of the previous year, aftergrowing at an average rate of 17% during the first three quarters. Exports ofoffice and telecom equipment to the United States fell even more sharply,registering a 13% decline in the fourth quarter after growth of 10% in the thirdquarter. Overall, exports of Chinese manufactured goods to the United Statesincreased just 1% over the previous year, after growth of 14% in the thirdquarter.

One of the sectors hardest hit by the global recession has been the automobileindustry. Japan’s exports of automotive products to the rest of the world fellby 18%, while exports to the United States dropped by 30% in the fourth quarterof 2008. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA),passenger car registrations were down 18% in Europe in February 2009, comparedto the previous year. The new EU member states of Eastern Europe were hardesthit, with a drop of 30%, while Germany was a conspicuous exception with anincrease of nearly 22%. Sales in Germany were boosted by a 2,500 euro “scrappingbonus” provided by the German government to customers who replaced an oldervehicle with a new one. The scheme is intended to at least partly counteractslumping foreign sales of German cars. According to the German industryassociation Verband der Automobilindustrie (VDA), the number of vehiclesexported in February 2009 fell 51% over the previous year, while the volume ofimports was down 47%. Autodata Corp. also reports a 41% decline in Americanautomobile sales in February 2009.

As with merchandise exports, commercial services exports for which data wereavailable fell in the fourth quarter of 2008 compared with the previous year —albeit less so (7—8%) than merchandise (12%). For the year as a whole,commercial services exports grew more slowly than goods exports (on a balance ofpayments basis), rising by 11% compared with 15% for goods. Exports of transportservices rose 15% in 2008 while travel services and other commercial servicesboth increased 10%. The United States remained the largest exporter and importerof commercial services, with exports of $522 billion and imports of $364billion.

One indicator of the severity of the global downturn in trade has been thefall-off in international shipping. According to the International Air TransportAssociation (IATA), air cargo traffic was down 23% in December 2008 compared toa year earlier, led by a strong decline of 26% in the Asia-Pacific region. Togive some perspective on the magnitude of this drop, the decline recorded inSeptember 2001, when most of the world’s aircraft were temporarily grounded, wasonly 14%.

Another measure that has received a lot of attention recently is the Baltic DryIndex, a measure of the cost of shipping bulk cargo by sea, published by theBaltic Exchange in London, the leading world marketplace for brokering shippingcontracts. Movements in the index can be tracked to global demand formanufactured goods. Between June and November of 2008 the Baltic Dry Index fellby 94%.

Annual trade figures in dollar terms were strongly influenced by changes incommodity prices and exchange rates in 2008. Despite the fact that fuel pricesended 2008 at a lower level than at any point in 2007, average prices for 2008were about 40% higher than 2007, which tended to raise total merchandise importsfor most countries. For example, United States merchandise imports grew 7% in2008, but non-fuel imports only increased by 1%. Prices for food and beverageshave also receded from their peaks of last year.

South and Central America saw exports expand by 1.5% and imports grow by 15.5%.Import growth was faster than that of any other region. (Table 1) Imports grewfaster than GDP while export volume lagged behind output.

The region with the fastest export volume growth in 2008 was the Commonwealth ofIndependent States (CIS — a group of former Soviet Union states), which recordeda 6% increase compared to 2007. The region also had the second highest importgrowth compared to any other, with a 15% expansion over the previous year.

Both export and import volumes for the Middle East were down sharply in 2008,falling to 3% from 4% in 2007 for exports, and to 10% from 14% for imports.

The growth of Africa’s exports and imports also slowed in 2008, falling from4.5% in 2007 to 3% in 2008 on the export side, and from 14% in 2007 to 13% onthe import side.

Asia’s exports and imports dropped sharply in volume terms. Export growth was4.5% in 2008, down from 11.5% in 2007, and 13.5% in 2006. Import growth in 2008was even slower, at 4%, down from 8% in the previous year.

Europe registered the slowest export growth of any region last year, with anexpansion of just 0.5%, down from 4% in 2007. Import growth turned negative in2008, falling by 1%.

North America’s exports grew by 1.5% in 2008, while imports dropped 2.5%. Bothexports and imports were down sharply from 2007 (Chart 4).

Net oil-exporting regions benefited from record high fuel prices in 2008, as thecost of a barrel of oil rose to over $140 by mid-year. Prices turned down afterJuly, however, and ended the year below $50 per barrel, as world oil demandmoderated and the global economy slowed.

Significantly higher energy prices in 2008 had a strong effect on nominal (i.e.where prices and exchange rate changes are included) merchandise trade valuesand growth rates compared to 2007. Energy prices rose 40% on average last year,while prices for food and beverages both increased 23%. Agricultural rawmaterial prices fell by less than 1%, while metals dropped 8.0% (Chart 5).

The appreciation of the dollar against othercurrencies in late 2008, especially against the euro, also influenced tradedevelopments estimated in nominal terms. The growth of trade in euro-zonecountries is probably understated as a result of being expressed in dollars.

The Canadian dollar, British pound and Korean won have followed similartrajectories as that of the euro, first appreciating against the dollar inrecent years then reversing this trend sharply as the financial crisis worsened.The Chinese yuan has risen gradually against the dollar since 2005, but remainedfairly stable during the latter half of 2008 amid increasing turmoil infinancial markets. The Japanese yen also appreciated sharply (Chart 6).

North America exhibited the weakest growth ofmerchandise trade on both the export and import sides. Exports increased 10% to$2.0 trillion in 2008, while imports rose 7%, to $2.9 trillion. According to theNational Bureau of Economic Research, which traditionally is the body that datesrecessions in the United States, the US economy has been in recession sinceDecember 2007. This explains its relatively weak trade performance (AppendixTable 1).

South and Central America saw more robust growth, of 21% in exports ($602billion) and 30% in imports ($595 billion).

Like North America, Europe grew slowly in 2008 compared to 2007, but this waspartly influenced by the depreciation of the Euro over the course of the year.Exports increased by 12%, to $6.5 trillion, while imports rose 12%, to $6.8trillion.

The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) saw robust growth of both exportsand imports, resting on the strength of the region’s extractive industries.Exports rose 35%, to $703 billion, while imports increased by 31% to $493billion.

Africa, like other natural-resource-rich regions, also saw a strong expansion inexports and imports in 2008. Exports increased 29% to $561 billion, and importsrose to $466 billion, 27% higher than in 2007. The Middle East enjoyed thefastest export growth of all regions in 2008, at 36% ($1.0 trillion), whileimports grew by 23% ($575 billion). Finally, Asia’s exports increased 15% innominal terms to $4.4 trillion, and imports rose by 20%, to $4.2 trillion.

Germany remained the leading merchandise exporter in 2008, with shipments worth$1.47 trillion, despite the fact that its share in world exports fell to 9.1%from 9.5% in 2007 (Appendix Table 3). China was the second largest, with exportsof $1.43 trillion and an 8.9% share in world. Rounding out the top 5 exporterswere the United States ($1.3 trillion or 8.1% of world), Japan ($782 billion,4.9%), and the Netherlands ($634 billion, 3.9%).

The United States continued to lead all merchandise importers with shipmentsfrom the rest of the world worth $2.17 trillion (13.2%). Germany was the secondlargest importer of merchandise, with a 7.3% share valued at $1.21 trillion. Theremaining top five importers were China in third place, ($1.13 trillion or6.9%), Japan in fourth ($762 billion, 4.6%), and France in fifth ($708 billion,4.3%.)

Taking the European Union (i.e. the 27 current member states) as a single entityand excluding internal EU trade, the five leading exporters were as follows: theEuropean Union (15.9%), China (11.8%), the United States (10.7%), Japan (6.4%)and Russian Federation (3.9%). Exports from the EU were worth 1.93 trillion in2008 (Appendix Table 4).

In 2008, North America’s exports of commercialservices increased by 9%, to $603 billion, while imports grew 6%, to $473billion (Appendix Table 2).

The financial crisis shows up clearly in quarterly data on trade in commercialservices for North America. The region’s trade, which was growing rapidly in thefirst nine months of 2008 (13% for exports and 10% for imports), slowed suddenlyin the last quarter (-2% for exports and -3% for imports). The most affectedsector was travel, which includes tourism (-2% for exports and -6% for imports).

In 2008, Europe’s exports of commercial services increased by 11%, to $1.9trillion, while imports grew 10%, to $1.6 trillion.

The impact of the financial crisis is also evident in the case of Europe.According to available data, the region’s exports of commercial services, whichwere growing by 19% in the first nine months of 2008, dropped to an 11% declinein the last quarter. It should be noted that exchange rate effects in the lastquarter of 2008 are likely to have magnified the impact of the crisis, but theydo not explain such a large drop on their own.

Exports of commercial services of South and Central America increased 16% ($109billion), while imports rose 20% ($117 billion).

The Commonwealth of Independent States advanced 26% on the export side, to $83billion, while imports rose 25%, to $114 billion.

Africa’s commercial services exports grew 13% in 2008, to $88 billion. Importsalso grew 15%, rising to $121 billion.

Commercial services exports of the Middle East reached $94 billion in 2008, 17%higher than the previous year. Imports were also up 13%, to $158 billion.

Asia’s exports, valued at $837 billion, were 12% above their 2007 level. Importsalso increased by 12%, to $858 billion.

The United States saw its exports of commercial services rise 10% in 2008, to$522 billion, making it the top exporter. The country’s share in world servicesexports was 14% in 2008 (Appendix Table 5). The United Kingdom remained thesecond largest exporter with a 7.6% world share worth $283 billion.

Germany (6.3% or $235 billion), France (4.1%, $153 billion) and Japan (3.9%,$144 billion) rounded out the top 5, with Japan rising one place in the rankingsand replacing Spain.

The Secretariat estimates that China remained in seventh place with exports of$137 billion (3.7% of the world total). India ranks ninth with a 2.8% share inthe world total, worth $106 billion, and the Netherlands replaced Ireland as thetenth largest exporter.

On the import side, the United States stayed in first place, with imports rising7% to $364 billion (10.5% of world imports of commercial services). Germany wasthe second largest importer at $285 billion (8.2% of world). The next threelargest services importers were as follows: The United Kingdom in third place($199 billion, or 5.7% of world trade), Japan fourth ($166 billion, 4.8%) andChina fifth ($ 152 billion, or 4.4 percent). The only change in the ranking ofthe top 10 importers was the addition of the Republic of Korea in tenth place,displacing the Netherlands which dropped to eleventh place.

a. Includes the Caribbean. For compositionof groups see the Technical Notes of WTO, International Trade Statistics, 2008.
b. The 2007 annual change is affected by a reduction in trade associatedwith fraudulent VAT declaration. For further information, refer to the specialnotes of the monthlyUK Trade First Release
c. Imports are valued f.o.b.
d. Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon,Libya, Nigeria, Sudan.
e. Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Singapore and Chinese Taipei.
f. Common Market of the Southern Cone: Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay,Uruguay
g. Association of Southeast Asian Nations: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia,Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Viet Nam.

Source: WTO Secretariat.

a. Secretariat estimates.
b. Singapore’s retained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.
c. Imports are valued f.o.b.
d. Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.

Source: WTO Secretariat.

a. Singapore’s retained imports are defined as imports less re-exports.
b. Secretariat estimates.
c. Imports are valued f.o.b.
d. Includes significant re-exports or imports for re-export.

Source: WTO Secretariat.

a. Secretariat estimates.

Note: While provisional full year data were available in early March for 50 countries accounting for more than two thirds of world commercial services trade, estimates for most other countries are based on data for the first three quarters (the first six months in the case of China).

Source: WTO Secretariat.