It’s rare when there is widespread agreement among marketing advisers on how an individual crop should be handled. If it was common, market outlook “debates” would be non-existent. That’s what makes me nervous about postharvest marketing strategies for the 2023 corn and soybean crops. Market advisers, including myself, seem to be stacked on one side of the canoe; I’m not sure what’s stopping it from capsizing.
A generally poor finish for both corn and soybeans has made the supply side of both balance sheets a moving target until the final production estimates come in January.
Sell Soybeans Now
Still, soybean fundamentals are more positive than the supply and demand outlook for corn. Soybean export demand improved as the 2023/24 marketing year started, and expanded crush capacity helped domestic demand set new records late in the old-crop marketing year.
That soybean demand makes the soybean market more receptive to a postharvest rally if production estimates trend lower into January. Soybean futures are incentivizing selling soybeans now rather than sometime in 2024. Selling soybeans “off the combine” is a consensus plan among market advisers, but only if growers are willing to maintain pricing flexibility. That means using call options to participate in a potential postharvest rally.
Sell Corn Later
Corn demand struggled at the start of the marketing year. Exports are behind last year’s pace, and the availability of Brazil’s corn continues to pull importers south of the equator. Feed use faces a headwind, but as corn-for-feed prices retreat under the weight of new-crop supplies, it should hold steady. Corn-for-ethanol use is solid, but it does not have the growth potential to offset lost export demand.
The supply-side of the corn balance sheet is a moving target for two reasons. Late-season stress threatened yield potential, but many expected USDA to add to planted and harvested acres in this fall’s production reports. It creates a nightmare scenario for corn bulls. The potential is that more acres offset lower yields, and if export demand is trimmed further, 2023/24 corn carryover could remain at 2.2 billion bushels or more.
Carry in corn futures is giving incentive to put it in the bin until delivery in the first half of 2024. At the same time, rail bids went to a new-crop cash bid on Sept. 1. That essentially makes all corn “new crop” and is likely to build more carry into futures — giving more incentive to store now and sell later.
If December corn futures fall under the weight of harvest and a lack of export demand, capture back-month premiums with forward contracts, put options or hedges. Be ready to lock in a crop insurance indemnity below $4.50 by mid-October.
FAQs
Sell Soybeans Now
What's the price of corn and soybeans today? ›
My Grain Bids
| Commodity | Last | Open |
|---|
| Corn | 440s-0 | 441-0 |
| Soybeans | 1159-4s | 1162-2 |
| Wheat | 603-2s | 602-0 |
| Cotton | 0.809s | 0.809 |
2 more rowsThe national average soybean yield is projected at 52 bu. per acre. The projected total supplies from 2024/25 are 17.24 billion bushels of corn and 4.84 billion bushels of soybeans. The market's job is to find a way to use as many of those bushels as possible.
Will corn prices go up in 2023? ›
It is a trifle bearish, but USDA predicts producer prices will only fall from the 2023-24 March estimate of $4.75 to $4.40 in 2024-25.
Should I sell my soybeans now? ›
While soybeans hold more value now than they will next spring, selling cash beans now and purchasing a July call option will allow the holder to recapture some of the higher prices that could occur for soybeans, should there be weather problems again for Brazilian and Argentine producers.
What is the cash price for corn today? ›
Cash Grain Bids
| commodity | price | date |
|---|
| Corn | $4.41 | 29/04/2024 |
| Soybeans | $11.26 | 29/04/2024 |
US Soybean Farm Price Received is at a current level of 11.90, down from 12.80 last month and down from 15.10 one year ago.
What is the price outlook for corn and soybeans in 2024? ›
Grain prices have dropped dramatically in the last year. Current prices for 2024 new crop delivery are around $4.15/bu for corn, $11.00/bu for soybeans (2/23/23). This is a decrease of around $1.00/bu for corn and $1.75/bu for soybeans compared to what these prices were expected one year ago (see Figure 1).
What's going on with the soybean market? ›
Soybeans decreased 147.50 USd/BU or 11.36% since the beginning of 2024, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Historically, Soybeans reached an all time high of 1794.75 in September of 2012.
What is the corn market prediction? ›
Corn used for ethanol production is raised by the same volume and is expected to reach 5.4 billion bushels. The 2023/24 season-average farm corn price is lowered by $0.05 per bushel to $4.70 per bushel.
The average price for soybeans was $12.90 per bushel in 2023, according to USDA. FAPRI is projecting a roughly $2 price decrease per bushel to $10.94 per bushel in 2024.
What is the price of soybeans in 2023? ›
Soybean Prices - 45 Year Historical Chart
| Soybean Prices - Historical Annual Data |
|---|
| Year | Average Closing Price | Annual % Change |
|---|
| 2023 | $14.1616 | -14.38% |
| 2022 | $15.5008 | 12.85% |
| 2021 | $13.6890 | 1.93% |
53 more rowsCOARSE GRAINS: This month's 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged relative to last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered to $4.75 per bushel based on observed prices to date. Global coarse grain production for 2023/24 is forecast 2.7 million tons lower to 1,507.4 million.
When should I sell my soybeans? ›
Longtime readers know I make seasonal sale recommendations. This simple concept works well. I suggest making corn and soy-bean sales in May and June while avoiding sales from August through October. This has worked in 30 of the past 40 years.
Are soybeans going to go up? ›
U.S. ending stocks were tight in 2023, at 245 million bushels, down 8.5% from 2022. Lower ending stocks combined with growing demand for sustainable biodiesel indicate the United States may need more supply of soybeans. U.S. planted acres are likely to go up for soybeans in 2024.
How much is 1 acre of soybeans worth? ›
The expected gross profit for this productivity soil is $449/acre for corn and $442/acre for soybeans. Assuming a 50-50 rotation the average gross return would be $446/acre. The net return would be calculated by subtracting out the land rent.
What is the price of a bushel of corn right now? ›
US Corn Farm Price Received is at a current level of 4.36, down from 4.74 last month and down from 6.80 one year ago. This is a change of -8.02% from last month and -35.88% from one year ago. The US Corn Farm Price measures the price of 1 bushel of corn in US Dollars.
How much profit per acre of corn? ›
For corn, the baseline's 2023 yields of 181.5 bushels per acre and $5.70 average cash price received spells revenues of $1034. Total costs of $870 per acre would generate a profit of $164, down from an estimated $290 this year and a record $323 in 2021.
How much per acre is corn and soybeans profitable? ›
Farmer returns
Operator and land return for corn is projected at $264 per acre in 2023, down $434 per acre from the $698 return in 2022. The operator and land return of $350 per acre for soybeans is down by $170 from the $520 return in 2022.
