Bitcoin Likely to Drop After the Halving, JPMorgan Says (2024)

The bitcoin (BTC) price is likely to weaken after the reward halving, a quadrennial event that slows the rate of growth in bitcoin supply and looks set to occur around April 19-20, Wall Street giant JPMorgan (JPM) said in a research report on Wednesday.

The bank sees downside for the world’s largest cryptocurrency after the halving because the market is still in overbought conditions, according to its analysis of open interest in bitcoin futures.

Furthermore, the cryptocurrency price of about $61,200 is still above the bank’s volatility-adjusted comparison with gold, which sets it at $45,000, and its projected production cost of $42,000 after the halving. The bitcoin production cost has historically acted as a lower boundary for BTC prices.

JPMorgan also notes that venture-capital funding remains subdued despite the recent crypto market resurgence.

The biggest impact of the halving will be felt by mining companies: “As unprofitable bitcoin miners exit the bitcoin network, we anticipate a significant drop in the hashrate and consolidation among bitcoin miners with a highest share for publicly-listed bitcoin miners,” analysts led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote.

“Post halving event, it is also likely that some bitcoin mining firms may look to diversify into low energy cost regions such as Latin America or Africa to deploy their inefficient mining rigs to gain salvage values from those rigs which would otherwise sit idle,” the authors wrote.

Edited by Sheldon Reback.

Bitcoin Likely to Drop After the Halving, JPMorgan Says (2024)

FAQs

Bitcoin Likely to Drop After the Halving, JPMorgan Says? ›

Typically, Bitcoin prices continue to surge for a good few months following a halving month, rising, on average, for seven months.

Will bitcoin prices drop immediately after halving? ›

Typically, Bitcoin prices continue to surge for a good few months following a halving month, rising, on average, for seven months.

What will bitcoin be worth after the 2024 halving? ›

Bitcoin price will surge with the Bitcoin halving coming closer. What is the projected price of Bitcoin in 2024? The projected price of Bitcoin in 2024 will range between $35,000 and $120,000, with an average of $77,500.

What is the JPMorgan crypto warning? ›

JPMorgan continues to advise exercising caution in the crypto markets in the near future due to several factors, including a lack of positive indicators and declining retail investor interest.

Did JPMorgan say Bitcoin mining stocks slumped ahead of the halving? ›

JPMorgan notes that mining stocks have slumped ahead of the bitcoin halving. The bank favors Riot Platforms and Iris Energy. Bitcoin's outperformance may mean that part of the typical post-halving rally has been pulled forward, the report said.

Should I buy bitcoin before or after halving? ›

Consider this: if it were universally anticipated that bitcoin's value would surge immediately following the 2024 halving, investors would likely move to acquire bitcoin before the event, driving up its price in the present rather than in the future.

How much will 1 bitcoin be worth in 2025? ›

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction 2030
YearPrice
2025$ 68,167.06
2026$ 71,575.41
2027$ 75,154.18
2030$ 87,000.36
1 more row

What crypto is JPMorgan investing in? ›

JPMorgan disclosed investments totaling $731,246 in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Bitwise's Bitcoin ETF (BITB), Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), with the majority, $477,425, in IBIT.

What is the FBI warning on crypto? ›

The FBI warns Americans against using cryptocurrency money transmitting services that are not registered as Money Services Businesses ( MSB ) according to United States federal law ( 31 U.S.C. § 5330 ; 31 CFR §§ 1010; 1022 ) and do not adhere to anti-money laundering requirements.

Is Cryptocurrency a threat to the US dollar? ›

Bitcoin will be increasingly important as means of payment and an alternative asset, there is no doubt about that, but it is unlikely to displace the US dollar as the world's reserve currency.

Will Riot survive Bitcoin halving? ›

Riot's strategy for the 2020 halving

If anything, Riot is in a stronger position heading into this particular cycle, armed with a rich balance sheet and more substantial mining operations. The company is even reselling energy to the Texas power grid as heat waves strain the local power grid.

How many days after Bitcoin halving does it hit peak? ›

Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x, says the halving is “associated with price increases due to reduced supply” but investors will have to wait for a price peak, which typically comes 500 days after a halving.

Is Bitcoin halving bullish? ›

Bitcoin halving is considered bullish because each event reduces the rate at which future bitcoins are created.

How long does bitcoin peak after halving? ›

Each halving has resulted in peak prices (prior to a big correction) between 10 and 16 months from the actual event.

What are the immediate effects of the bitcoin halving? ›

The immediate impact of the halving is felt primarily by bitcoin miners, who see their block rewards cut in half, affecting their profitability and potentially leading to changes in the cryptocurrency mining industry.

Will Bitcoin mining be profitable after halving? ›

Price, profitability, and perception are valuable aspects. It is important for companies dedicated to Bitcoin mining to know that the halving affects the less productive or less efficient miners. Although the production cost is the same, the reward is lower, which causes profitability to be very high.

How long does bitcoin take to drop? ›

How Long Does It Take to Send Bitcoin? The total time it takes for BTC to be sent and received varies from transaction to transaction. Bitcoin's transaction times can vary greatly, ranging anywhere from ten minutes to one day. However, it will usually take between thirty minutes and two hours to complete the process.

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